Cocoa Prices Drop by Nearly 50% Recently: What’s the Future Trend?
According to Coffee Finance Network (www.coffinance.com), international cocoa futures prices have fallen by 48% in 2025, making cocoa one of the commodities with the biggest price drops. This stands in sharp contrast to the 178% surge in 2024. Sluggish demand and a recovery in output are seen as the main reasons for the falling cocoa prices.
What will happen to cocoa prices in 2026? To answer this question, we first need to understand the current basic market information.
Prices
At present, cocoa futures prices at around $6,000 per ton are still at a historically high level. Over the past decade, cocoa futures prices have hovered around $3,000 per ton. However, in the past two years, Ivory Coast and Ghana—the major cocoa producers in West Africa—have kept raising their government purchase prices, which now stand at about $5,000 per ton. This means that if futures prices fall below $5,000, the two countries will either halt cocoa supply in the short term or cut their domestic purchase prices. Therefore, in the short to medium term, $5,000 will become a key support level for cocoa futures prices.
Consumer Demand
Chocolate consumption habits have not changed completely; the high prices have merely curbed market demand. If prices return to normal levels, chocolate consumption demand will pick up accordingly. Yet it usually takes 3 to 6 months for changes in cocoa raw material prices to be passed on to chocolate costs. This means that consumption is unlikely to improve in the first half of 2026, but may gradually recover in the second half if prices remain weak.
Supply
On the supply side, thanks to the recent good rainfall, the market expects a strong performance in the medium-crop output starting from April 2026. What’s more, cocoa production in South America will rise sharply in the new production season kicking off in October. This indicates that in the long run, cocoa prices will keep moving closer to the 10-year historical average of $3,000 per ton.
Conclusion
In conclusion, cocoa prices will remain weak. In the short term, they will face strong support at $5,000, but as market factors play out over time, prices will eventually trend toward $3,000 per ton.